# VS Predicts — full knowledge export

VS Predicts publishes historical performance transparently, including losing picks and non-qualifying decisions, to evaluate whether predictive edge exists over time.

## Mission

VS Predicts evaluates many games and publishes only the forecasts that clear its published criteria — while preserving evidence of the entire decision process, including every no-bet. Wins, losses, timestamps, closing-line value, and ROI all stay public so the record can be evaluated independently.

VS Predicts is an experimental market-prediction validation lab covering MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, College Football (NCAA FBS), College Basketball (NCAA Division I men), and Major European Soccer. The objective is to determine, over a meaningful sample size, whether the model produces edge against the closing market price. Closing-line value (CLV) is the primary KPI; ROI is secondary.

## Product direction

A responsible, verifiable sports intelligence layer between probabilistic models, sportsbook markets, betting exchanges, prediction markets, and public proof.

The intended interface is `Bet Cleveland only at +105 or better.` A selection without its market, observed price, minimum acceptable price, and expiry is incomplete. The deterministic record and fail-closed private delivery contract are implemented; paid-entitlement activation and live quote refresh remain incomplete. Active values are never included in this public export.

The following public-safe record explains what VS Predicts is building, which capabilities are live or future, what the target instruction will contain, what evidence will be published, and which implementation categories remain protected. It contains no active pregame selection.

```json
{
  "schema": "betfire.product-direction.v1",
  "document_type": "product_direction",
  "roadmap_state": "directional_not_current_availability",
  "roadmap_references": [
    "github_issue_118",
    "github_issue_120",
    "github_issue_121",
    "github_issue_123",
    "github_issue_126"
  ],
  "product": {
    "name": "VS Predicts",
    "category": "responsible_verifiable_sports_market_intelligence",
    "north_star": "A responsible, verifiable sports intelligence layer between probabilistic models, sportsbook markets, betting exchanges, prediction markets, and public proof.",
    "public_purpose": "Close the gap between published forecasts and reality with time-aligned data, calibrated probabilities, disciplined abstention, executable pricing, and immutable history."
  },
  "primary_decision_interface": {
    "type": "conditional_price_instruction",
    "state": "building",
    "preferred_template": "Bet {selection} only at {minimum_acceptable_price_or_line} or better.",
    "example": "Bet Cleveland only at +105 or better.",
    "incomplete_template": "Take {selection}.",
    "principle": "A selection without its market, observed price, minimum acceptable price, and expiry is incomplete."
  },
  "target_instruction_fields": [
    "canonical_event_id",
    "sport",
    "league_or_competition",
    "market",
    "selection",
    "venue",
    "venue_type",
    "observed_line",
    "observed_american_odds",
    "observed_decimal_odds",
    "minimum_acceptable_line",
    "minimum_acceptable_american_odds",
    "minimum_acceptable_decimal_odds",
    "price_condition",
    "fair_probability",
    "fair_price",
    "market_consensus_probability",
    "estimated_edge",
    "uncertainty",
    "generated_at",
    "price_observed_at",
    "last_actionable_at",
    "expires_at",
    "event_start",
    "model_version",
    "market_snapshot_hash",
    "betfire_proof_url",
    "certifieddata_verify_url",
    "closing_line",
    "closing_price",
    "clv",
    "settlement",
    "result"
  ],
  "evidence_lifecycle": [
    "market_observation",
    "official_instruction",
    "certifieddata_timestamp",
    "price_availability_window",
    "frozen_pre_event_close",
    "settlement",
    "performance_calculation",
    "public_proof"
  ],
  "sport_readiness": {
    "meaning": "implemented coverage and production evidence are reported separately",
    "mlb": "production_ingestion_scoring_publication_and_settlement_proven",
    "nfl": "production_ingestion_scoring_publication_and_settlement_proven_operator_evidence_fallback_exercised",
    "nba": "implemented_offseason_no_current_slate",
    "nhl": "implemented_offseason_no_current_slate",
    "cfb": "production_ingestion_scoring_and_legacy_row_settlement_proven_membership_gate_repaired_current_scope_publication_pending",
    "cbb": "implemented_no_current_slate_first_live_slate_pending",
    "soccer": "production_ingestion_scoring_and_disciplined_abstention_proven_first_official_pick_pending"
  },
  "capabilities": [
    {
      "id": "seven_sport_official_pick_lifecycle",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Official pick qualification across seven supported sports with zero-pick days allowed."
    },
    {
      "id": "certifieddata_prediction_evidence",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Independent timestamp and integrity evidence with explicit timing classification."
    },
    {
      "id": "closing_line_and_clv",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Comparable pre-event closing-price capture and closing-line value when available."
    },
    {
      "id": "complete_settled_proof_ledger",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Public wins, losses, pushes, voids, standardized performance, and permanent proof records."
    },
    {
      "id": "private_append_only_decision_ledger",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Every evaluated opportunity plus explicit no-slate, degraded, and out-of-scope states is written to a private immutable record."
    },
    {
      "id": "sanitized_post_start_decision_history",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "A versioned public projection exposes selection-free, timestamped event status immediately and opportunity-level reasons no earlier than event start while structurally excluding proprietary model fields."
    },
    {
      "id": "same_provider_settlement_with_independent_fallback",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Official picks resolve final scores by their publication-provider event identity first, then use an explicit independent score-feed reconciliation path with stored provenance."
    },
    {
      "id": "authoritative_operator_settlement_evidence",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "When automated providers fail, an allowlisted operator can submit only an authoritative HTTPS final score; the database derives the grade, hashes immutable evidence, emits the normal settled event, and locks the pick atomically."
    },
    {
      "id": "responsible_intelligence_standard",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "A versioned public contract prohibiting loss-chasing, artificial urgency, forced pick quotas, volume incentives, and silent history changes."
    },
    {
      "id": "verified_forecast_registry_foundation",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "A public provider registry, sample-maturity rules, and machine-readable comparison contract with no third-party rankings yet."
    },
    {
      "id": "governed_settled_content_cms",
      "state": "live",
      "description": "Immutable settled-only sources, persisted generation attempts, versioned editorial artifacts, three exact-hash review roles, human CMS controls, correction chains, and a sanitized public publication index. Model execution remains separately kill-switched."
    },
    {
      "id": "ai_factory_production_prompts",
      "state": "building",
      "description": "Separate writer, fact, SEO, and responsible-intelligence prompt templates must pass a reviewed production dry run before generation is enabled; automatic publication has its own default-off switch."
    },
    {
      "id": "subscriber_dashboard_and_paid_plumbing",
      "state": "building",
      "description": "Authenticated shell, fail-closed server gates, and conditional-instruction rendering exist; billing and live paid-entitlement activation remain incomplete."
    },
    {
      "id": "evidence_forecast_and_market_scoreboards",
      "state": "building",
      "description": "Separate scoreboards for evidence completeness, probabilistic forecast quality, and market/performance diagnostics without an opaque composite trust score."
    },
    {
      "id": "conditional_minimum_price_instruction",
      "state": "building",
      "description": "The deterministic v1 contract derives and immutably stores a selection, observed quote, minimum acceptable price or line, availability state, expiry, and certification-bound wording. Production subscriber activation and live quote refresh remain incomplete."
    },
    {
      "id": "calibration_and_market_baseline_scorecards",
      "state": "planned",
      "description": "Calibration, proper scoring, and incremental skill measured against the same no-vig market baseline."
    },
    {
      "id": "line_movement_and_edge_decay_forecasting",
      "state": "planned",
      "description": "Probability, direction, magnitude, and timing of movement after an official instruction."
    },
    {
      "id": "sportsbook_exchange_prediction_market_normalization",
      "state": "planned",
      "description": "Venue-neutral comparison that preserves margin, commission, liquidity, size, rules, and venue type."
    },
    {
      "id": "portfolio_risk_intelligence",
      "state": "planned",
      "description": "Correlation, concentration, drawdown, and incremental exposure across instructions."
    },
    {
      "id": "governed_paid_bulletins",
      "state": "planned",
      "description": "Tier-safe Pro and Sharps bulletins derived from time-aligned official facts, responsible-use review, and independent narrative review."
    },
    {
      "id": "forecast_lab_community",
      "state": "planned",
      "description": "Proof-linked forecast discussion, calibration challenges, and research participation without wagering-volume status or a Slack-style real-time MVP assumption."
    },
    {
      "id": "continuous_in_play_analytics",
      "state": "research",
      "description": "One-sport pilot only after pregame validation, official-data rights, latency, and unit-economics gates."
    },
    {
      "id": "automatic_wager_execution",
      "state": "not_planned",
      "description": "VS Predicts currently provides analytics and evidence, not automatic wager placement."
    }
  ],
  "public_disclosure": {
    "includes": [
      "product purpose and direction",
      "live versus future capability state",
      "target instruction field names",
      "high-level input categories",
      "evidence lifecycle and timestamps",
      "measurement definitions and coverage",
      "complete settled official history",
      "selection-free pregame event status and sanitized post-start opportunity history",
      "claim and certification boundaries",
      "responsible product commitments",
      "provider registry and scoreboard eligibility rules",
      "sanitized content publication versions, source hashes, artifact hashes, and review attestations"
    ],
    "excludes": [
      "active pregame selections in public feeds",
      "proprietary model construction",
      "internal parameter values",
      "private qualification rules",
      "provider-specific selection logic",
      "raw provider payloads",
      "proprietary timing logic"
    ]
  },
  "claim_boundaries": [
    "CertifiedData proves timestamped existence and integrity of a signed artifact; it does not prove accuracy or profitability.",
    "VS Predicts owns price capture, closing-line comparison, settlement, performance calculations, and the claims derived from them.",
    "Roadmap entries describe direction and do not represent current availability unless their capability state is live.",
    "Sportsbook, exchange, and prediction-market observations are not treated as identical without venue-specific normalization.",
    "Provider rankings are not live until complete comparable evidence, data rights, review, and correction processes are operational.",
    "VS Predicts does not guarantee outcomes and does not automatically place wagers.",
    "Implemented sport support is not described as live-proven until an in-season production run demonstrates discovery, scoring, and settlement; CBB remains first-live-slate pending."
  ],
  "validation_program": {
    "minimum_settled_official_picks": 300,
    "preferred_first_review_settled_official_picks": 500,
    "primary_diagnostics": [
      "calibration",
      "market_baseline_incremental_skill",
      "closing_line_value",
      "price_availability",
      "standardized_roi",
      "maximum_drawdown",
      "evidence_coverage"
    ]
  }
}
```

## Responsible intelligence contract

VS Predicts is designed to improve decision quality, not gambling frequency. The following public contract defines its daily decision states, prohibited product mechanics, safeguards, provider-comparison rules, and business-alignment boundaries. Zero actionable cards is a valid daily result.

```json
{
  "schema": "betfire.responsible-intelligence.v1",
  "document_type": "responsible_intelligence_policy",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "published_on": "2026-08-30",
  "status": "public_commitment",
  "owner": "VS Predicts",
  "objective": "Help people make fewer, better-informed, price-disciplined sports decisions while preserving an auditable public record of forecast quality.",
  "principles": [
    "Time-align every fact, market observation, forecast, and publication.",
    "Publish calibrated probabilities and uncertainty rather than winner labels alone.",
    "Attach every actionable instruction to an executable price or line and an expiry.",
    "Treat abstention as a valid and measurable decision.",
    "Preserve wins, losses, pushes, voids, missing evidence, and corrections.",
    "Evaluate VS Predicts and eligible third-party providers under the same published rules.",
    "Protect proprietary implementation while making public claims reproducible."
  ],
  "prohibited_mechanics": [
    {
      "id": "loss_chasing",
      "description": "Language or product behavior intended to recover prior losses through more gambling."
    },
    {
      "id": "frequency_or_stake_escalation",
      "description": "Prompts intended to increase wager frequency, stake size, or continuous play."
    },
    {
      "id": "artificial_urgency",
      "description": "Scarcity or countdown pressure that is not caused by a real price, line, or event expiry."
    },
    {
      "id": "gated_regret",
      "description": "Blurred-winner, missed-winner, or similar regret mechanics used to pressure an upgrade."
    },
    {
      "id": "variable_reward_engagement",
      "description": "Streak rewards, near-miss celebration, confetti, or wagering-volume status mechanics."
    },
    {
      "id": "vulnerability_targeting",
      "description": "Notifications or offers triggered by losses, inactivity, distress, or inferred financial vulnerability."
    },
    {
      "id": "volume_leaderboards",
      "description": "Rankings based on amount risked, wager count, or other measures of gambling volume."
    },
    {
      "id": "automatic_execution",
      "description": "Automatic wager placement or any claim that VS Predicts placed a wager for a user."
    },
    {
      "id": "active_public_leakage",
      "description": "Exposure of active paid instructions through public pages, APIs, caches, metadata, feeds, or crawler surfaces."
    },
    {
      "id": "loss_aligned_compensation",
      "description": "Company or staff incentives tied to user losses, deposits, betting handle, or wagering frequency."
    }
  ],
  "required_safeguards": [
    "Separate essential notifications from optional analysis and marketing consent.",
    "Give users channel, sport, quiet-hour, frequency, and one-click pause controls.",
    "Show probability, uncertainty, price, expiry, sample size, and risk in plain language.",
    "Review every material feature for responsible-use impact before and after launch.",
    "Publish policy changes, incidents, corrections, and responsible-product metrics annually.",
    "Require external responsible-gambling and relevant lived-experience review before the paid consumer product exits beta."
  ],
  "daily_intelligence": {
    "target": "three_to_five_intelligence_cards_when_supported_by_the_slate",
    "qualifying_instruction_quota": null,
    "states": [
      "actionable",
      "watch",
      "pass",
      "expired"
    ],
    "rules": [
      "Only an actionable card may contain an active recommendation.",
      "Watch and pass cards cannot be promoted to fill inventory.",
      "An expired card cannot be rendered as actionable.",
      "Zero actionable cards is a valid daily result."
    ]
  },
  "provider_comparison": {
    "purpose": "Compare evidence and forecast quality using objective, reproducible measurements.",
    "first_release": "VS Predicts and a no-vig market-consensus benchmark only.",
    "no_composite_trust_score": true,
    "no_paid_ranking_influence": true,
    "named_adverse_claims_auto_publish": false,
    "requirements": [
      "Cite the source and preserve the cohort definition.",
      "Separate provider-supplied claims from VS Predicts calculations.",
      "Do not rank incomplete or selectively observable records.",
      "Provide corrections, disputes, and provider responses without erasing prior snapshots.",
      "Require human and legal review before publishing a material adverse named-provider evaluation."
    ]
  },
  "business_alignment": {
    "primary_models": [
      "subscriptions",
      "publisher_and_data_licensing",
      "verified_embeds",
      "research_products",
      "premium_apis"
    ],
    "prohibited_incentives": [
      "user_losses",
      "betting_handle",
      "deposit_frequency",
      "wager_frequency"
    ]
  },
  "public_sources": [
    {
      "title": "WHO gambling fact sheet",
      "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/gambling",
      "role": "public_health_reference"
    },
    {
      "title": "NCPG Internet Responsible Gambling Standards",
      "url": "https://www.ncpgambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Internet-Responsible-Gambling-Standards-Rev.-12-2023-FINAL.pdf",
      "role": "responsible_product_reference"
    },
    {
      "title": "UK Gambling Commission responsible product design",
      "url": "https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/standards/remote-gambling-and-software-technical-standards/rts-14-responsible-product-design",
      "role": "responsible_product_reference"
    },
    {
      "title": "FTC comparative advertising policy",
      "url": "https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/statement-policy-regarding-comparative-advertising",
      "role": "comparative_claim_reference"
    }
  ]
}
```

## Verified forecast registry and scoreboards

The foundation registry contains VS Predicts and a planned no-vig market-consensus benchmark only. No third-party rankings are live. Evidence quality, probabilistic forecast quality, and market/performance diagnostics remain separate; there is no composite trust score. Empty scoreboard entries are an explicit prelaunch state, not missing data.

```json
{
  "provider_registry": {
    "schema": "betfire.provider-registry.v1",
    "status": "foundation_only",
    "third_party_rankings_live": false,
    "ingestion_policy": "Only complete certified feeds or authorized verified integrations can become performance-rank eligible.",
    "providers": [
      {
        "schema": "betfire.provider-profile.v1",
        "id": "betfire-ai",
        "display_name": "VS Predicts",
        "provider_kind": "forecast_provider",
        "state": "provisional",
        "evidence_class": "certified_feed",
        "official_url": "",
        "coverage_scope": "official_settled_history",
        "decided_forecasts": null,
        "sample_maturity": null,
        "metrics_state": "runtime_authoritative",
        "performance_rank_eligible": false,
        "disclosure": "VS Predicts is the operator of this registry and is subject to the same published evidence and sample rules."
      },
      {
        "schema": "betfire.provider-profile.v1",
        "id": "market-consensus-baseline",
        "display_name": "No-vig market consensus",
        "provider_kind": "benchmark",
        "state": "evidence_pending",
        "evidence_class": "verified_integration",
        "official_url": "/methodology",
        "coverage_scope": "same_event_market_and_cutoff_baseline",
        "decided_forecasts": null,
        "sample_maturity": null,
        "metrics_state": "not_yet_evaluated",
        "performance_rank_eligible": false,
        "disclosure": "This is a planned comparison baseline, not a commercial forecasting provider or a current ranking."
      }
    ]
  },
  "scoreboard": {
    "schema": "betfire.scoreboard-snapshot.v1",
    "status": "prelaunch_no_rankings",
    "no_composite_trust_score": true,
    "paid_ranking_influence": false,
    "backtests_mixed_with_live_records": false,
    "missing_values_converted_to_zero": false,
    "default_window": "complete_comparable_live_history",
    "dimensions": {
      "evidence_quality": [
        "pregame_timestamp_coverage",
        "price_or_line_coverage",
        "settlement_coverage",
        "complete_history_coverage",
        "comparable_closing_line_coverage",
        "source_provenance_coverage",
        "correction_count"
      ],
      "probabilistic_forecast_quality": [
        "brier_score",
        "log_loss",
        "expected_calibration_error",
        "reliability_by_probability_bucket",
        "incremental_skill_vs_same_market_baseline"
      ],
      "market_and_performance_diagnostics": [
        "mean_and_median_clv",
        "positive_clv_rate",
        "standardized_flat_stake_roi",
        "maximum_drawdown",
        "average_price_and_break_even_probability",
        "price_availability_after_publication",
        "abstention_selectivity"
      ]
    },
    "comparison_rules": [
      "Use identical event, market, and cutoff cohorts for direct comparisons.",
      "Keep live published records separate from backtests.",
      "Do not rank selectively observable or incomplete cohorts.",
      "Do not recreate prices after an event.",
      "Do not rank by win rate alone.",
      "Apply the same methodology to VS Predicts.",
      "Preserve immutable, reproducible scoreboard snapshots."
    ],
    "sample_maturity": [
      {
        "state": "insufficient_sample",
        "min_decided": 0,
        "max_decided": 24,
        "ranked": false
      },
      {
        "state": "provisional",
        "min_decided": 25,
        "max_decided": 99,
        "ranked": false
      },
      {
        "state": "ranked_developing",
        "min_decided": 100,
        "max_decided": 299,
        "ranked": true
      },
      {
        "state": "validation_sample",
        "min_decided": 300,
        "max_decided": 499,
        "ranked": true
      },
      {
        "state": "mature_sample",
        "min_decided": 500,
        "max_decided": null,
        "ranked": true
      }
    ],
    "legal_and_editorial_gate": {
      "named_adverse_evaluations_live": false,
      "llm_auto_publication_allowed": false,
      "required_before_launch": [
        "qualified_legal_review",
        "source_and_data_rights_review",
        "human_prepublication_review",
        "provider_response_and_correction_process"
      ]
    },
    "generated_from": "foundation_contract_only",
    "entries": []
  }
}
```

## Categories of inputs

The model consumes market movement across licensed sportsbooks, verified injury and roster news, matchup history, implied-probability modeling, volatility, and closing-line value. Specific feature engineering, weights, thresholds, and timing logic are intentionally not disclosed.

## Output tiers

- Prime: highest model conviction relative to the market.
- Edge: mid-conviction tier with measurable but smaller separation.
- Consensus: cross-source agreement; lower model edge but high convergence.

## Closing-line value methodology

CLV compares the posted American odds captured at prediction generation with the final comparable pre-event market price. The generation pipeline records executable quotes for soon-commencing events; each closing-line record converges on the last valid pre-commence observation and freezes at event start. When no comparable close was captured, CLV is null rather than reconstructed.

## Verification chain and claim boundary

1. VS Predicts generates an official pick and records the model, market snapshot, selection, odds, and event start.
2. CertifiedData issues an Ed25519-signed certificate over the canonical prediction record and returns a public verification URL.
3. VS Predicts stores the certificate URL and timestamp with the pick.
4. After the event settles, VS Predicts publishes the complete result, price comparison, dollar illustration, proof page, and certificate link.
5. A certificate timestamp earlier than event_start is classified as `pregame_certificate`. A later timestamp is `post_start_certificate`; missing or unparsable evidence is `timing_unavailable`.

CertifiedData verifies that the original record existed at its signed timestamp and was not silently altered. It does not certify accuracy, profitability, fairness, or legal compliance. VS Predicts owns the settled result and performance calculations.

When the publication provider and independent rolling score feed both fail, an allowlisted operator may submit an authoritative HTTPS final-score source. The database—not the operator—derives won/lost/push from the original prediction terms, writes immutable evidence, emits the normal settled event, and locks the pick atomically. Sanitized source facts and a reproducible public SHA-256 appear in the settlement-evidence feed; operator identity and notes remain private.

## Authoritative public data surfaces

- Public-safe product direction and capability states: https://betfireai.com/api/public/product-direction.json
- Responsible Intelligence Standard: https://betfireai.com/responsible-intelligence
- Machine-readable responsible-intelligence contract: https://betfireai.com/api/public/responsible-intelligence.json
- Verified Forecast Registry: https://betfireai.com/forecast-registry
- Machine-readable provider registry: https://betfireai.com/api/public/providers.json
- Machine-readable scoreboard methodology and entries: https://betfireai.com/api/public/scoreboards.json
- Selection-free pregame event status and sanitized post-start opportunity ledger: https://betfireai.com/api/public/decision-ledger.json
- Decision-ledger JSON Schema and public reason taxonomy: https://betfireai.com/api/public/decision-ledger.schema.json
- Governed settled-only publication history: https://betfireai.com/api/public/publications.json
- Publication-index JSON Schema: https://betfireai.com/api/public/publications.schema.json
- Complete settled-pick ledger in this file: https://betfireai.com/llms-full.txt
- All-time settled-pick JSON index: https://betfireai.com/api/public/picks/settled
- Append-only `pick.settled.v1` event feed: https://betfireai.com/api/public/events/pick-settled
- Authoritative provider-outage settlement evidence: https://betfireai.com/api/public/settlement-evidence.json
- Settlement-evidence JSON Schema: https://betfireai.com/api/public/settlement-evidence.schema.json
- Append-only `results.period.closed.v1` publication-trigger feed: https://betfireai.com/api/public/events/results-period-closed
- Detailed trailing-30-day results JSON: https://betfireai.com/api/public/results.json
- Aggregate performance JSON: https://betfireai.com/api/public/performance.json
- Settled-pick RSS: https://betfireai.com/rss.xml
- Results archive: https://betfireai.com/results
- Performance dashboard: https://betfireai.com/performance
- Official pick proof template: https://betfireai.com/proof/{pick_id}
- Sport-organized HTML directory: https://betfireai.com/sports
- Stable all-sports JSON directory: https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json
- Weekly recap archive: https://betfireai.com/recaps
- Weekly recap JSON template: https://betfireai.com/api/public/recaps/week-of-{YYYY-MM-DD}
- Certified candidate proof archive: https://betfireai.com/proof/candidates
- CertifiedData VS Predicts reference integration pattern: https://certifieddata.io/customers/betfire-ai

## Current official record

- Settled official picks: 6
- Record (wins-losses-pushes): 2-4-0
- Voids: 0
- Picks with a CertifiedData verification URL: 6
- Picks with a certificate timestamp predating event start: 6
- Target for statistical confidence: 300–500 settled bets.
- Last 30 days: ROI -33.33% · CLV avg -10.73% · decided 6
- Last 90 days: ROI -33.33% · CLV avg -10.73% · decided 6
- All time: hypothetical flat-stake ROI -33.33% · CLV avg -10.73%
- Settled certified candidate proof rows: 0

## Sport-organized discovery

These seven stable entries help humans and language models stay inside one sport. Low-sample hubs remain available for direct discovery but are marked non-indexable until they contain five settled picks. The same sport IDs and metrics are exposed at https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json.

```jsonl
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"mlb","name":"MLB","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/mlb","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":4,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":2,"losses":2,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":0.04,"certification":{"linked":4,"pregame":4,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"nfl","name":"NFL","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/nfl","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":1,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":0,"losses":1,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-100,"certification":{"linked":1,"pregame":1,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"nba","name":"NBA","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/nba","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":0,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":0,"losses":0,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":null,"certification":{"linked":0,"pregame":0,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"nhl","name":"NHL","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/nhl","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":0,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":0,"losses":0,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":null,"certification":{"linked":0,"pregame":0,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"cfb","name":"College Football (NCAA FBS)","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/college-football","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":1,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":0,"losses":1,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-100,"certification":{"linked":1,"pregame":1,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"cbb","name":"College Basketball (NCAA Division I men)","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/college-basketball","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":0,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":0,"losses":0,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":null,"certification":{"linked":0,"pregame":0,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
{"record_type":"sport_directory_entry","sport_id":"soccer","name":"Major European Soccer","hub_url":"https://betfireai.com/sports/soccer","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/sports.json","settled_count":0,"indexable":false,"record":{"wins":0,"losses":0,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":null,"certification":{"linked":0,"pregame":0,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0}}
```

## Weekly recap directory

One canonical recap contains the complete week and groups its picks by sport. Recaps become indexable at three settled picks; wins and losses are never split into duplicate page types. When an AI Factory editorial layer is present, this export includes its exact source and artifact hashes, immutable publication version, all three reviewer roles, source pick IDs, and full reviewed prose. Missing editorial is represented as null rather than generated on request.

```jsonl
{"record_type":"weekly_recap","week_start":"2026-08-24","lifecycle":"closed","canonical_url":"https://betfireai.com/recaps/week-of-2026-08-24","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/recaps/week-of-2026-08-24","settled_count":5,"sports":["mlb","nfl","cfb"],"record":{"wins":1,"losses":4,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-301.96,"certification":{"linked":5,"pregame":5,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0},"editorial":null}
{"record_type":"weekly_recap","week_start":"2026-08-17","lifecycle":"closed","canonical_url":"https://betfireai.com/recaps/week-of-2026-08-17","machine_url":"https://betfireai.com/api/public/recaps/week-of-2026-08-17","settled_count":1,"sports":["mlb"],"record":{"wins":1,"losses":0,"pushes":0,"voids":0},"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":102,"certification":{"linked":1,"pregame":1,"postStart":0,"timingUnavailable":0},"editorial":null}
```

## Complete official settled-pick ledger

This is the complete official history, newest first. It contains settled picks only and never exposes active pregame recommendations. Each line is a standalone JSON object. Use `proof_url` for the permanent VS Predicts record and `certifieddata_verify_url` for independent signature verification. Null certification fields remain visible rather than being inferred or hidden.

```jsonl
{"record_type":"official_settled_pick","id":"90d99fa9-8500-4434-8408-9f6b7744938b","proof_url":"https://betfireai.com/proof/90d99fa9-8500-4434-8408-9f6b7744938b","certifieddata_verify_url":"https://certifieddata.io/verify/765fc61b-08bf-4ea8-a81f-3235d0b455b1","certifieddata_certificate_id":"765fc61b-08bf-4ea8-a81f-3235d0b455b1","certification_timing":"pregame_certificate","certified_at":"2026-08-29T18:40:34.42+00:00","prediction_generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:40:33.712+00:00","event_start":"2026-08-29T22:00:00+00:00","settled_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00","pick_date":"2026-08-29","sport":"nfl","league":"american-football","tier":"prime","market_phase":"preseason","team":"Tennessee Titans","opponent":"Chicago Bears","market":"h2h","selection":"Tennessee Titans","posted_american_odds":-115,"closing_american_odds":null,"clv_pct":null,"result":"lost","unit_size":1,"units_profit_loss":-1,"hypothetical_stake_dollars":100,"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-100,"model_version":"EV-8.2-SHARP","market_snapshot_hash":"b44d7427ce353e007fdc14dcaf3d67d8376dbc0e70ad0b473b1a3fd11b7858c9","settlement_provenance":{"provider":"operator-verified-source","match_method":"operator_evidence","score_event_id":"id1400023371548182","observed_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00","final_score":{"Chicago Bears":24,"Tennessee Titans":15},"authoritative_evidence":{"schema_version":"1.0.0","evidence_id":"04ffbe4e-241f-4841-ba00-c540c2148e30","pick_id":"90d99fa9-8500-4434-8408-9f6b7744938b","proof_path":"/proof/90d99fa9-8500-4434-8408-9f6b7744938b","provider_event_id":"id1400023371548182","sport":"nfl","event":{"team":"Tennessee Titans","opponent":"Chicago Bears","final_score":{"Chicago Bears":24,"Tennessee Titans":15}},"market":{"type":"h2h","selection":"Tennessee Titans"},"computed_result":"lost","source":{"kind":"official_league","url":"https://www.nfl.com/games/bears-at-titans-2026-pre-3","title":"Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans 2026 PRE 3 - Game Center","publisher":"National Football League","retrieved_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00"},"recorded_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00","public_integrity_hash":"37d490b1f88fbb55e4be2ceb5183ff394fb11a8902bc27bf25bb67d73613c4c7"}}}
{"record_type":"official_settled_pick","id":"41e9d470-3d91-4721-9045-608705e4ac46","proof_url":"https://betfireai.com/proof/41e9d470-3d91-4721-9045-608705e4ac46","certifieddata_verify_url":"https://certifieddata.io/verify/0f3f24da-1dd4-4b4a-b204-4c97a5932f18","certifieddata_certificate_id":"0f3f24da-1dd4-4b4a-b204-4c97a5932f18","certification_timing":"pregame_certificate","certified_at":"2026-08-29T18:40:35.028+00:00","prediction_generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:40:33.725+00:00","event_start":"2026-08-29T23:00:00+00:00","settled_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00","pick_date":"2026-08-29","sport":"cfb","league":"american-football","tier":"prime","market_phase":"regular_season","team":"Western Carolina Catamounts","opponent":"Eastern Kentucky Colonels","market":"totals","selection":"Under 50.5","posted_american_odds":140,"closing_american_odds":null,"clv_pct":null,"result":"lost","unit_size":1,"units_profit_loss":-1,"hypothetical_stake_dollars":100,"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-100,"model_version":"EV-8.2-SHARP","market_snapshot_hash":"47a3a428b89fdb793450aa1a06d90529af85ff3d784b758a399b99a9ebe60670","settlement_provenance":{"provider":"operator-verified-source","match_method":"operator_evidence","score_event_id":"id1402765370923598","observed_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00","final_score":{"Eastern Kentucky Colonels":21,"Western Carolina Catamounts":45},"authoritative_evidence":{"schema_version":"1.0.0","evidence_id":"02368e47-2a4c-49ed-8d54-354dd5dd84ff","pick_id":"41e9d470-3d91-4721-9045-608705e4ac46","proof_path":"/proof/41e9d470-3d91-4721-9045-608705e4ac46","provider_event_id":"id1402765370923598","sport":"cfb","event":{"team":"Western Carolina Catamounts","opponent":"Eastern Kentucky Colonels","final_score":{"Eastern Kentucky Colonels":21,"Western Carolina Catamounts":45}},"market":{"type":"totals","selection":"Under 50.5"},"computed_result":"lost","source":{"kind":"official_school","url":"https://ekusports.com/news/2026/8/29/football-eastern-kentucky-falls-at-western-carolina-in-2026-season-opener.aspx","title":"Eastern Kentucky Falls at Western Carolina in 2026 Season Opener","publisher":"Eastern Kentucky University Athletics","retrieved_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00"},"recorded_at":"2026-08-30T22:18:01.398229+00:00","public_integrity_hash":"c554d03b638bef4a2ad2b7d1f67d4b0880d5f1f9d89385c556e1f4365c94b6de"}}}
{"record_type":"official_settled_pick","id":"1e6fd267-47ab-4baa-b8d3-8fee5033bd6d","proof_url":"https://betfireai.com/proof/1e6fd267-47ab-4baa-b8d3-8fee5033bd6d","certifieddata_verify_url":"https://certifieddata.io/verify/ec5876e1-05ee-4f28-8d00-c1b37f2274a9","certifieddata_certificate_id":"ec5876e1-05ee-4f28-8d00-c1b37f2274a9","certification_timing":"pregame_certificate","certified_at":"2026-08-29T15:23:08.305+00:00","prediction_generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:23:07.715+00:00","event_start":"2026-08-29T20:05:00+00:00","settled_at":"2026-08-30T12:33:09.403+00:00","pick_date":"2026-08-29","sport":"mlb","league":"baseball","tier":"edge","market_phase":"regular_season","team":"Arizona Diamondbacks","opponent":"San Francisco Giants","market":"h2h","selection":"Arizona Diamondbacks","posted_american_odds":-102,"closing_american_odds":-112,"clv_pct":0.046245,"result":"won","unit_size":1,"units_profit_loss":0.9803921568627451,"hypothetical_stake_dollars":100,"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":98.04,"model_version":"EV-8.2-SHARP","market_snapshot_hash":"3a72652e56293e280c961916e59d27895c39f10de4f74623b92eb9c1f37866ab","settlement_provenance":{"provider":null,"match_method":null,"score_event_id":null,"observed_at":null,"final_score":null,"authoritative_evidence":null}}
{"record_type":"official_settled_pick","id":"2b55a7a6-7f3e-4e77-bab1-3de23c4d8771","proof_url":"https://betfireai.com/proof/2b55a7a6-7f3e-4e77-bab1-3de23c4d8771","certifieddata_verify_url":"https://certifieddata.io/verify/46fad60b-bedb-4238-a216-d12303540d74","certifieddata_certificate_id":"46fad60b-bedb-4238-a216-d12303540d74","certification_timing":"pregame_certificate","certified_at":"2026-08-26T19:22:12.773+00:00","prediction_generated_at":"2026-08-26T19:22:11.174+00:00","event_start":"2026-08-26T20:07:00+00:00","settled_at":"2026-08-27T18:03:22.079+00:00","pick_date":"2026-08-26","sport":"mlb","league":"baseball","tier":"edge","market_phase":"regular_season","team":"Los Angeles Angels","opponent":"Cleveland Guardians","market":"h2h","selection":"Los Angeles Angels","posted_american_odds":150,"closing_american_odds":150,"clv_pct":0,"result":"lost","unit_size":1,"units_profit_loss":-1,"hypothetical_stake_dollars":100,"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-100,"model_version":"EV-8.2-SHARP","market_snapshot_hash":"d918eff224fb010848ea079fee494e290aadf327d5b5fac9f97fa266ed6c9941","settlement_provenance":{"provider":null,"match_method":null,"score_event_id":null,"observed_at":null,"final_score":null,"authoritative_evidence":null}}
{"record_type":"official_settled_pick","id":"f7cc0bd7-1954-4ae4-a62a-5cf2484dd9b1","proof_url":"https://betfireai.com/proof/f7cc0bd7-1954-4ae4-a62a-5cf2484dd9b1","certifieddata_verify_url":"https://certifieddata.io/verify/c89eb283-09c2-46e9-a4a4-badb619995b5","certifieddata_certificate_id":"c89eb283-09c2-46e9-a4a4-badb619995b5","certification_timing":"pregame_certificate","certified_at":"2026-08-26T19:22:11.955+00:00","prediction_generated_at":"2026-08-26T19:22:11.174+00:00","event_start":"2026-08-26T20:07:00+00:00","settled_at":"2026-08-27T18:03:21.8+00:00","pick_date":"2026-08-26","sport":"mlb","league":"baseball","tier":"prime","market_phase":"regular_season","team":"Los Angeles Angels","opponent":"Cleveland Guardians","market":"totals","selection":"Over 8.5","posted_american_odds":148,"closing_american_odds":148,"clv_pct":0,"result":"lost","unit_size":1,"units_profit_loss":-1,"hypothetical_stake_dollars":100,"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":-100,"model_version":"EV-8.2-SHARP","market_snapshot_hash":"d918eff224fb010848ea079fee494e290aadf327d5b5fac9f97fa266ed6c9941","settlement_provenance":{"provider":null,"match_method":null,"score_event_id":null,"observed_at":null,"final_score":null,"authoritative_evidence":null}}
{"record_type":"official_settled_pick","id":"c94cb175-e932-4a77-b768-183c352026f3","proof_url":"https://betfireai.com/proof/c94cb175-e932-4a77-b768-183c352026f3","certifieddata_verify_url":"https://certifieddata.io/verify/6d780003-055c-469b-9df7-b08076c5b999","certifieddata_certificate_id":"6d780003-055c-469b-9df7-b08076c5b999","certification_timing":"pregame_certificate","certified_at":"2026-08-21T19:44:07.539+00:00","prediction_generated_at":"2026-08-21T19:44:07.141+00:00","event_start":"2026-08-21T20:10:00+00:00","settled_at":"2026-08-22T07:27:37.621+00:00","pick_date":"2026-08-21","sport":"mlb","league":"baseball","tier":"edge","market_phase":"regular_season","team":"Milwaukee Brewers","opponent":"Atlanta Braves","market":"totals","selection":"Under 6","posted_american_odds":102,"closing_american_odds":285,"clv_pct":-0.475325,"result":"won","unit_size":1,"units_profit_loss":1.02,"hypothetical_stake_dollars":100,"hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars":102,"model_version":"EV-8.2-SHARP","market_snapshot_hash":"a241c5dfe7d2255abcc2ab8cd601a1ede568595483626aebc26668b723952dbf","settlement_provenance":{"provider":null,"match_method":null,"score_event_id":null,"observed_at":null,"final_score":null,"authoritative_evidence":null}}
```

## Glossary

- CLV: difference between the posted price and the comparable closing market price.
- ROI: return divided by the amount risked.
- hypothetical_profit_loss_dollars: standardized result from risking exactly $100 on the official pick, using posted odds and no compounding.
- pregame_certificate: the stored CertifiedData certificate timestamp precedes the stored event start; follow the verification URL to validate the signed artifact.
- post_start_certificate: a certificate exists, but its timestamp does not establish pregame existence.
- timing_unavailable: the certificate URL or comparable timestamps are missing or invalid.
- locked: a settled pick protected from modification or deletion by the database trigger.

## FAQ

Q: How can I verify a published pick was recorded before the event?
A: Open the pick's proof_url, compare certified_at with event_start, and follow certifieddata_verify_url to validate the signed artifact. The certification_timing field performs the timestamp comparison but does not replace signature verification.

Q: Why are today's selections absent from this export?
A: The complete selection and line are withheld until settlement to protect timing-sensitive model output. This export contains every official pick after it settles.

Q: Does CertifiedData endorse VS Predicts' win rate or profitability?
A: No. CertifiedData verifies existence and integrity at the signed timestamp. VS Predicts owns the performance record.